A few weeks ago, I made a bold set of predictions for how American Idol would go for the rest of the season. It was part what I hoped, and part what seemed logical knowing what I knew. I still stick by my predictions even if a whole lot of it has already been thrown off. I guess those parts I don’t stick by as much as others.
As I write this, Thia and Naima were just sent home a few nights ago. There is a performance show Wednesday that I will write about Thursday morning. Then Thursday there will be an elimination, and my next day to post will be Sunday. Basically, I’m going to re-predict, but not until after yet another elimination. But I’m trying to predict each elimination anyway, so it’s all good.
I’ve always planned to do a post looking at my previous thoughts and predictions to see how much of a handle I have on the way this show works after a few years of watching. Given that my prediction before Top 11 has gone so wrong, I thought I would start that post(s) now. I also intend to discuss my thoughts on what I think happens with the votes, and how I would vote if I voted.
I’m going to start with some specific and not so specific things I said during the audition shows.
Of Robbie, I said, “He wasn’t great, but he was the first one who I thought might last longer than the first Hollywood week, maybe the second.”
And he did, and notably, all the people before him didn’t. I alluded to him as possible Top 12 when I said that Devyn was “…only the second person who I saw as potential Top 12.” I said two more possibles. None of them made it, but…
The thing is that I didn’t call anyone as definite Top 12 until Casey, and even then I was wrong, because they had a Top 13 this year. But he’s still around at Top 9 (barely) so it’s all good.
I merely said that I hope Jacee makes it to the main competition, and given that Paul is still around, I reiterate that I hope he makes it to the main competition. Surprise elimination next week where Paul goes home before the competition and Jacee takes his place.
I didn’t say anything about Scotty… I said he has a good country voice.
Still bummed that Emma got booted. Ok, Paul goes home before the competition and we bring back Jacee and Emma.
I said that Naima was very likely Top 12 material.
I said, “Haley wasn’t as good to me. I thought she was all over the place…” I still think so. Ok, Haley and Paul go home, and Jacee and Emma take their place.
I said, “Paul was ok. But he sang “Maggie Mae” by Rod Stewart? Does anybody actually think that song is good?”
I said, “Lauren was the last audition of the city, and the only one on the Nashville show that I think could make it to Top 12.”
That is Lauren Alaina. There were other Laurens later, and it became a little confusing for a bit. Paul was the only one I talked about from Nashville who also made Top 12. And if there has been anyone that I’ve been the most wrong about how well they would do, it’s Paul.
About Casey, I said, “Wow. He was pretty unique, and I’m going to absolutely call Top 12 for him. I’ll even say possibly Top 6. He’s the first one I’ve said for sure for Top 12, so we’ll see whether I’ve got this one.”
The verdict is still out on that (barely). I’ll deal with him more when I get to my pre Top 11 prediction, because he threw so many things off.
About Stefano, I said, “I’m calling Top 12, but not as surely as I was about Casey…”
And I’m still not as surely as I am about Casey, even with Casey nearly getting sent home.
I called Top 12 for Clint… and he might have made it so far, but for some personality issues. That is one thing I can’t predict is in what way people will act like asses.
I said, “James cried too much and I don’t know why he was sent through.”
I’ve since realized why he was sent through, but he also stopped crying so fucking much, so it’s all good. Don’t get me wrong. I’m ok with men crying. I did some of it myself a few years ago. The problem is that he was some sort of emotional roller coaster that needed to let me off before I puked. It was a combination of his reeling in the drama and the screeching just enough that has made me like him.
I said, “Jacob… I think they didn’t show him until Hollywood weeks (like Ashton) and he’s quite good. I think he’s got a good chance of getting through to Top 12 I’m at least saying top 24 (if that’s what they’re doing this year).”
Of Ashton, Karen, and Thia, I simply said they were each good, but made no predictions. Of Pia, I hardly said anything. They didn’t feature her much at all.
So I didn’t speak badly of anyone who made it to Top 13, except Paul and James, and I only called one person for definite Top 12 who didn’t make it. (I called Casey, Stefano, and Clint.) So up until that point I would say I did pretty good. The big issue is that there were a lot of people who could have gone either way, and there were only 13 slots in the Top 12. Yeah, you heard me.
The thing is that what I thought then may not even seem all that important now, but this was certainly the only time that I felt I had the patience to go through everything and see how well I did. And even then, there are people who are just a blur in the whole mess. It’s real easy to say that I didn’t say much bad about the Top 13, but they would have to be pretty good to get through, right. So what does that say about Jacee, Emma, Tiwan, and Chris, who I feel should all have done better than they did? I mean, I know that they just got lost in the shuffle of a lot of talented people. And then there is the Paul factor.
Paul is going to be a very interesting artist when he releases an album, and I don’t think that he’s strictly bad. I just think that he’s strictly bad at singing songs on American Idol. I’ll let that go for now though, because I say so much crap about him anyway. But since I’m examining how much of a finger I have on the pulse and all that.
On Tuesday, I will post the rest of this post, and talk about the trouble with the voting procedure.